I fully predict Barack Obama will not win reelection this year for several reasons. Let's just take a step back and look at the bigger picture shall we?
There is a reason why the Obama campaign is manufacturing divisive wedge issues and constant diversions. To keep the electorate's mind off of the economy and Obama's abysmal record.
Just remember you good, obedient lemmings...The Republicans hate women and want to eradicate all forms of birth control forever. Romney owned a car elevator. Romney strapped a dog to the top of the car during a family vacation. Romney "bullied" a "presumed" gay kid a gazillion years ago in prep school. On and on the Axelrod/Obama spin machine of lies and deceit will go. They do this because they know they have no record to run on. Unless you consider repealing Don't Ask Don't Tell a significant achievement.
A meager win in 2008...against McCain and Palin
Before we look at the present political climate, I want to take a step back and refresh your memory on the 2008 race between Obama and McCain. This is something I covered in depth a few weeks ago, and it needs reiterating. In 2008, the nation was weary and angry at the previous 8 years of President Bush. The country wanted and needed change and Barack Obama was it. No Republican was winning in 2008. In addition, the nation had just watched as US troops were caught in between a bloody civil war in Iraq between 2007-2008, the financial collapse had just taken place two months prior to election day, the mass media supported Obama's campaign with no shame, Obama outspent McCain by at least a 3:1 margin nationwide, and finally, John McCain, who is just as moderate if not more so than Mitt Romney, ran an awful, ineffective, and weak campaign. Despite all these clear paths to a complete landslide victory, there was no landslide victory. There was victory, but nothing convincing. Obama won by a 53 to 46 margin in the popular vote which is the same margin of victory George HW Bush had in 1988. This came against a crusty old white man who wasn't even a conservative.
So why didn't Obama blow McCain out of the water in 2008? Even after 8 years of painful Republican rule under Bush? The answer is simple. Because America is a center-right nation that will always identify with conservatives more than ultra left liberals, like Obama.
It's Always the Economy
Now, 4 years later, Obama has been in for one term and still has not fixed the economy. And that is going to be the thing that will beat him. All polls thus far give Romney a very large advantage when it comes to the economy, which also happens to be the most important issue to voters. It will come down to the economy. It always does. And by the way, unemployment is still above 8%.
Obama is losing conservative Democrats
Obama recently came out of the closet for gay marriage. It likely cost him the crucial swing state of North Carolina. Democrats are scrambling to move the DNC convention from Charlotte to another more Obama friendly state. In Wisconsin, an "easy" blue state, Obama is polling dead even with Romney. In the West Virginia Democratic primary, an inmate took 40% of the vote from Obama. In Arkansas, 4 in 10 Democrats voted for an unknown lawyer over Obama. In Kentucky, 4 in 10 Democrats voted for "uncommitted" over Obama.
Americans overwhelmingly oppose Obamacare
This June, expect the Supreme Court to strike down the unconstitutional Obamacare law. Contrary to what the liberal pundits desperately want to believe, this will be devastating for Obama. Why? Let's just say the monumental Democratic shellacking in 2010 is an indicator of how the nation feels about Obamacare, and when the Justices strike it down, it will be another issue brought to the forefront, and one Obama will be forced to defend viciously. In essence, he'll be digging his own grave.
Romney is a stronger and more effective candidate than John McCain
The bottom line is the economy and the race will hinge on that. Mitt Romney, while souring many conservatives, is actually the perfect candidate to run against Obama in the current political climate. He has limited baggage (hence the attacks on him pulling pranks in high school), he has the political killer instinct to match Obama, his campaign has displayed the ability to destroy opponents ruthlessly and efficiently (just ask Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich), and above all, he has a record to tout, and one of economic success that will resonate with most voters. Obama cannot rely on the emotionalism of hope and change to mask his own shady past and failing, non existent record. This time around it will be about the economy. And this time around, he will be forced to be vetted.
Joe Biden
Another political wildcard in the GOP's hands is vice president Joe "Gaffe machine" Biden. When Romney chooses a VP running mate, likely electrifying Tea Party backed Marco Rubio, it will boost his campaign significantly. Really, anyone Romney chooses will look great compared to Joe Biden. He's the gift that keeps on giving. No one likes Joe Biden, and he is particularly disliked in several key battleground states.
Obama can only go down from here...
Barack Obama was an icon in 2008. He ran a monster campaign and broke records in vote totals. It is impossible for him to match those levels of excitement this time around. That means he will not carry states like Iowa, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Colorado again. Polling data shows Romney closing gaps in all battleground states. Obama can only lose votes and Republicans can only gain. Obama will still get some of the black vote (not 2008 levels), and some of the youth vote (not 2008 levels) and some of the independent vote (not 2008 levels). He will claim the ultra left Berkeley liberal vote and most of the general Democratic base. He will get votes from three primary groups. People who "hate whitey". People who hate the rich. And people who think women are "under attack" from Republicans. Fortunately, these lunatic voting blocs don't make up a majority.
Romney will claim the Republican base vote, most of the independent vote, and more of the Latino vote than most predict. Overall, it will be a close race and Mitt Romney will be the next president.
Obama will not win reelection, and if he does by some crooked scheme or manufactured event prior to the election, then I am finished with politics forever and you'll never hear from me again.
There is a reason why the Obama campaign is manufacturing divisive wedge issues and constant diversions. To keep the electorate's mind off of the economy and Obama's abysmal record.
Just remember you good, obedient lemmings...The Republicans hate women and want to eradicate all forms of birth control forever. Romney owned a car elevator. Romney strapped a dog to the top of the car during a family vacation. Romney "bullied" a "presumed" gay kid a gazillion years ago in prep school. On and on the Axelrod/Obama spin machine of lies and deceit will go. They do this because they know they have no record to run on. Unless you consider repealing Don't Ask Don't Tell a significant achievement.A meager win in 2008...against McCain and Palin
Before we look at the present political climate, I want to take a step back and refresh your memory on the 2008 race between Obama and McCain. This is something I covered in depth a few weeks ago, and it needs reiterating. In 2008, the nation was weary and angry at the previous 8 years of President Bush. The country wanted and needed change and Barack Obama was it. No Republican was winning in 2008. In addition, the nation had just watched as US troops were caught in between a bloody civil war in Iraq between 2007-2008, the financial collapse had just taken place two months prior to election day, the mass media supported Obama's campaign with no shame, Obama outspent McCain by at least a 3:1 margin nationwide, and finally, John McCain, who is just as moderate if not more so than Mitt Romney, ran an awful, ineffective, and weak campaign. Despite all these clear paths to a complete landslide victory, there was no landslide victory. There was victory, but nothing convincing. Obama won by a 53 to 46 margin in the popular vote which is the same margin of victory George HW Bush had in 1988. This came against a crusty old white man who wasn't even a conservative.
So why didn't Obama blow McCain out of the water in 2008? Even after 8 years of painful Republican rule under Bush? The answer is simple. Because America is a center-right nation that will always identify with conservatives more than ultra left liberals, like Obama.
It's Always the Economy
Now, 4 years later, Obama has been in for one term and still has not fixed the economy. And that is going to be the thing that will beat him. All polls thus far give Romney a very large advantage when it comes to the economy, which also happens to be the most important issue to voters. It will come down to the economy. It always does. And by the way, unemployment is still above 8%.
Obama is losing conservative Democrats
Obama recently came out of the closet for gay marriage. It likely cost him the crucial swing state of North Carolina. Democrats are scrambling to move the DNC convention from Charlotte to another more Obama friendly state. In Wisconsin, an "easy" blue state, Obama is polling dead even with Romney. In the West Virginia Democratic primary, an inmate took 40% of the vote from Obama. In Arkansas, 4 in 10 Democrats voted for an unknown lawyer over Obama. In Kentucky, 4 in 10 Democrats voted for "uncommitted" over Obama.Americans overwhelmingly oppose Obamacare
This June, expect the Supreme Court to strike down the unconstitutional Obamacare law. Contrary to what the liberal pundits desperately want to believe, this will be devastating for Obama. Why? Let's just say the monumental Democratic shellacking in 2010 is an indicator of how the nation feels about Obamacare, and when the Justices strike it down, it will be another issue brought to the forefront, and one Obama will be forced to defend viciously. In essence, he'll be digging his own grave.
Romney is a stronger and more effective candidate than John McCain
The bottom line is the economy and the race will hinge on that. Mitt Romney, while souring many conservatives, is actually the perfect candidate to run against Obama in the current political climate. He has limited baggage (hence the attacks on him pulling pranks in high school), he has the political killer instinct to match Obama, his campaign has displayed the ability to destroy opponents ruthlessly and efficiently (just ask Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich), and above all, he has a record to tout, and one of economic success that will resonate with most voters. Obama cannot rely on the emotionalism of hope and change to mask his own shady past and failing, non existent record. This time around it will be about the economy. And this time around, he will be forced to be vetted.
Joe Biden
Another political wildcard in the GOP's hands is vice president Joe "Gaffe machine" Biden. When Romney chooses a VP running mate, likely electrifying Tea Party backed Marco Rubio, it will boost his campaign significantly. Really, anyone Romney chooses will look great compared to Joe Biden. He's the gift that keeps on giving. No one likes Joe Biden, and he is particularly disliked in several key battleground states.
Obama can only go down from here...
Barack Obama was an icon in 2008. He ran a monster campaign and broke records in vote totals. It is impossible for him to match those levels of excitement this time around. That means he will not carry states like Iowa, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Colorado again. Polling data shows Romney closing gaps in all battleground states. Obama can only lose votes and Republicans can only gain. Obama will still get some of the black vote (not 2008 levels), and some of the youth vote (not 2008 levels) and some of the independent vote (not 2008 levels). He will claim the ultra left Berkeley liberal vote and most of the general Democratic base. He will get votes from three primary groups. People who "hate whitey". People who hate the rich. And people who think women are "under attack" from Republicans. Fortunately, these lunatic voting blocs don't make up a majority.
Romney will claim the Republican base vote, most of the independent vote, and more of the Latino vote than most predict. Overall, it will be a close race and Mitt Romney will be the next president.
Obama will not win reelection, and if he does by some crooked scheme or manufactured event prior to the election, then I am finished with politics forever and you'll never hear from me again.
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