Mitt Romney is going to be the next president, barring some end of the world type event. I am already confident in this prediction for several reasons. You can read the details on the previous link or this one. The question is how close will it be?
It is still early yet, and Romney still hasn't chosen a running mate. After the Republican ticket is secured, predicting the crucial swing state outcomes will become a little easier, as will the general election.
CNN has an easy to use electoral map editor, which is where I made the following map. Previous voting results from 2000, 2004, and 2008 can be viewed by clicking on each state.
This is my preliminary estimate with Romney obtaining 287 electoral votes to Obama's 251. I made this prediction for a number of reasons.
-Romney wins Virginia because an unpopular George W. Bush took more of the vote there in 2004 (8.2%) than Obama did in 2008 (6.3%).
-Romney wins Ohio by a hair because Obama only garnered a 4.5% advantage there in 2008 to begin with.
-Romney wins Florida because Obama held just a 2% advantage there in 2008. George W. Bush held a comfortable 5 point advantage in Florida in 2004.
-Romney wins North Carolina easily. Bush took a 12% lead there in 2000 and 2004 while Obama won that state in 2008 by a hair (0.33%).
-Obama wins New Mexico easily. He took that state by a 15 point landslide in 2008 and while that number will be lower in 2012, it won't be within reach of a Republican win.
Current Rasmussen polling data shows most of the swing states nearly even. Colorado is currently tied at 45. Romney is ahead 47-46 in Iowa and Virginia. Romney is ahead 46-45 in Florida. Obama is ahead 47-45 in Ohio. Romney is ahead 49-44 in North Carolina.
I cite Rasmussen as the only accurate polling source for obvious reasons.
It is still early yet, and Romney still hasn't chosen a running mate. After the Republican ticket is secured, predicting the crucial swing state outcomes will become a little easier, as will the general election.
CNN has an easy to use electoral map editor, which is where I made the following map. Previous voting results from 2000, 2004, and 2008 can be viewed by clicking on each state.
This is my preliminary estimate with Romney obtaining 287 electoral votes to Obama's 251. I made this prediction for a number of reasons.
-Romney wins Virginia because an unpopular George W. Bush took more of the vote there in 2004 (8.2%) than Obama did in 2008 (6.3%).
-Romney wins Ohio by a hair because Obama only garnered a 4.5% advantage there in 2008 to begin with.
-Romney wins Florida because Obama held just a 2% advantage there in 2008. George W. Bush held a comfortable 5 point advantage in Florida in 2004.
-Romney wins North Carolina easily. Bush took a 12% lead there in 2000 and 2004 while Obama won that state in 2008 by a hair (0.33%).
-Obama wins New Mexico easily. He took that state by a 15 point landslide in 2008 and while that number will be lower in 2012, it won't be within reach of a Republican win.
Current Rasmussen polling data shows most of the swing states nearly even. Colorado is currently tied at 45. Romney is ahead 47-46 in Iowa and Virginia. Romney is ahead 46-45 in Florida. Obama is ahead 47-45 in Ohio. Romney is ahead 49-44 in North Carolina.
I cite Rasmussen as the only accurate polling source for obvious reasons.
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