Today, Romney overtook Obama in the overall Real Clear Politics polling average for the very first time this entire year. He currently holds a 0.7% lead over Barack Obama after a slew of post debate polls showed him in the lead. Among those, Pew reports Romney ahead 4, Gallup shows Romney ahead 2, and IBD/TIPP shows Romney ahead 2. Rasmussen shows a tie, with Romney pulling ahead in the battleground state poll for the first time since September 19th.
The complete 2012 RCP tracker.
To provide a reference, the red line shows October 3rd, the day of the first presidential debate.
The complete 2012 RCP tracker.
Those of you who read regularly here know I no longer use this RCP average as viable data. The majority of the polls taken this entire election cycle have used samples that assume 2008 levels of Democrat turnout, despite clear indications Republicans will have the edge in enthusiasm come election day. One must ask, if Romney is now ahead by 0.7% with polls that oversample Democrats by 5-15 points, how far is he really ahead?
Other post debate polls show Romney closing gaps in Pennsylvania and Michigan. But the most shocking poll of all? According to the most recent poll from Rasmussen, just released today, Obama is ahead by just 6 points....In CONNECTICUT!
Unless a video is released the night before the election of Romney molesting a young child, he is going to win the election.
Also, I feel compelled to apologize. Last week in preparation for the first debate, I said it would not be a game changer. I was wrong. This debate was surely a game changer, as you can see above. Romney unexpectedly turned in one of the strongest debate performances ever recorded, but perhaps more historic was Obama's performance, which many are ranking as the worst incumbent debate performance in presidential debate history. Obama self destructed last week. As one pundit said, "In 90 minutes, Romney wiped out 200 million dollars in negative battleground state ads from the Obama campaign."
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