On Obama, McCain, Romney and the 2012 Election.

Cross posted at RRR.

I fully predict Mitt Romney to win the election this year in a close race. There will be no landslides this election in a starkly contrasted, divided electorate. This is an unbiased opinion I base on the outcome of the 2008 presidential election.

Let's take a trip down memory lane back to the year of Hope, Change, Unicorns and Katie Couric. 

In 2008, Barack Obama won the election by a 53% to 46% margin in the popular vote. This is by no means a landslide, though he did shatter the record for the highest popular vote total of all time for a presidential candidate at 69 million. John McCain, however, amassed the third highest vote total of all time. Many tout Barack Obama's win in 2008 as a landslide. Obama's 2008 "landslide" was the same as George H.W. Bush's "landslide" of 1988, which also resulted in an 53% to 46% margin. In 1984, Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale by a 59 to 41 margin. In 1972 Richard Nixon beat George McGovern by a 61 to 37 margin. In 1964 Lyndon Johnson beat Barry Goldwater by a 61 to 38 margin. In 1956, Eisenhower beat Adlai Stevenson by a 57 to 42 margin. These were landslides. Obama should have had a landslide. He didn't. Of course, one must take into account the electoral college as well, but that is a topic of discussion for another day.

Some things to consider regarding 2008

- The country had endured 8 tumultuous years under Republican George W. Bush

- Barack Obama represented a fresh, new change and ran a largely effective campaign funded by a historically large amount of campaign money. 

- The election took place fresh off the heels of a complete economic collapse, which happened under a Republican president.

- The increasingly unpopular War in Iraq had recently escalated, with the country being torn apart by civil war and American troops caught in the middle.

- The American media supported candidate Obama and the Obama campaign en masse, on an unprecedented scale. 

- Moderate Republican candidate John McCain ran an extremely weak and ineffective campaign.

These are all factors worth taking into consideration. The Democrat, whoever it was, was going to win in 2008. If a plastic spork ran with a (D) after its name he would have beat the Republican. George W. Bush was the cause of that. Yet, despite the seemingly effortless road to the White House, Obama most certainly did not win in a landslide, despite overwhelming support from the press who not only reported stories in his favor, but collectively moved into his corner altogether. 

Barack Obama was and still is a weak candidate who can rely only on the media, oratory, pop culture, and preying on emotional people to win. We can already see the signs of this 4 years later now in 2012. The Obama campaign will use tactics such as "The War on Women", appearances on late night shows, and class warfare rhetoric to win. It sold in 2008 but it won't sell this time. 

As the Republican primary season fades away so too will the Republican infighting, bickering, and bashing as we transition to the general election with a clear cut decision. Mitt Romney or Barack Obama. Former Governor Romney is a far better candidate than John McCain was. He is better funded, more organized, a better speaker, and his platform is well suited for the current political climate. Which brings me to my next point. The economy and jobs.

History shows us that incumbent presidents with high unemployment have extreme difficulty getting re-elected. Not since the days of FDR has an incumbent president won re-election with an unemployment rate higher than 7.2%. (it is currently still above 8%) Unless our economy experiences a massive boom, and unemployment drops exponentially, both highly unlikely prospects, Barack Obama is going to have a very tough time convincing voters to vote for him. No amount of media spin can change these facts.

If you cast aside the petty politics of the day and the media spinsters who are driven not by journalistic integrity but by sensationalism and emotionalism you can see the bigger picture painted in 2008 and today in 2012. America is still a center right nation and the economy is still the biggest issue. That is why Romney will win.